John Kampfner :: author, broadcaster & commentator

Just what is going on in The Ukraine?
Daily Express, 25th November 2004

One of Europe’s biggest countries is in turmoil. Ukraine is a place that some people might struggle to place on a map, but it is vital to the future of our continent. In a strange way, the Cold War that we thought had been settled more than a decade ago is being fought again.

Over the past 10 years or so Ukraine has displayed the best and the worst of the many countries struggling to come to terms with life outside the Communist embrace. Once the second most powerful republic of the Soviet Union, it was always seen as loyal to Moscow. I remember in the old days going to Kiev, the capital, many times, and it was depressing to see a beautiful ancient city dragged down by bureaucracy and uniformity. Now it is unrecognisable, full of smart restaurants, bars and cafes. Business is thriving. So far so good...

Progress has not been so great in other areas. Ukraine, like Russia, is riddled with corruption. To get anything done, you still have to pay people off. Companies belong to politicians, and politicians belong to companies. Journalists who have tried to reveal the truth have been killed.

The country faces a stark choice. It is either going to stay close to Russia or it is to try to look westwards, to more open markets, more open democracy and cleaner politics. This week’s presidential elections have brought home that choice. In the one corner was the placeman of the old guard, Viktor Yanukovych, the nominee both of the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, and crucially of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. His message was more of the same, less change, more subservience to Moscow and slower economic reform.

Ranged against him was Viktor Yushchenko, married to an American, staunchly in favour of membership of Nato and the European Union, an advocate of greater press freedom. This is not a pure case of good versus bad. Yushchenko didn’t get where he has, both as a banker in the old USSR and then briefly as Ukraine’s prime minister, without some dubious dealings in his time. There are still questions he has to answer. But between the two men there is no comparison.

When the first round of elections took place a few weeks ago, both emerged neck and neck ahead of the rest. A run-off was declared. Yushchenko’s people cried foul, but worked from the assumption that they would win easily next time. However, when the second vote came on Sunday, they were once again robbed. Unofficial results declared that night gave Yanukovych a two-point advantage and both Kuchma and Putin were quick to declare him the victor.

Yushchenko’s people immediately took to the streets. They have been there ever since, holding rallies and cheering as their man took to parliament on Monday to declare himself the winner. The protesters have draped themselves in anything they can find that is orange, the colour they have chosen to announce a break with the past. The situation is extremely tense. Soldiers and police are blocking their path. The fear is strong that someone – perhaps agents of the government – will provoke violence.

The protesters’ case appears cut and dried. The foreign observers who were sent to Ukraine to monitor the elections have confirmed widespread fraud. In some pro-government areas, a turnout of close to 100 per cent was recorded. Whistle-blowers in towns in the east of this vast country – the part that is physically and spiritually closer to Russia – admitted that they had been ordered to guard stores of half a million fake ballots already assigned to Yanukovych.

Foreign leaders, from the US, to Britain, to Germany, to the new President of the European Commission, have denounced the results. They have warned that the scandal will damage Ukraine’s hopes of being accepted at some future point into European institutions. But they are treading carefully – fearful of adding fuel to the fire.

Much now depends on Putin. By an accident of timing, he will be in the Dutch capital, The Hague, today (thurs) for a joint Russian-EU summit. He has alarmed the West over the past year with a series of actions that appear to be pushing Russia back to the old days – from the war in Chechnya, to further curbs on the press, to changing the rules so that regional governors are now appointed rather than elected. Putin tried hard to prevent the southern state of Georgia from choosing a pro-American president. He will try even harder with Ukraine, a country many Russians believe should remain under its influence. After all, Ukraine was where the original Russian state began in the 9th century.

And yet Putin is a canny figure. He knows that if he goes to far he could scare off foreign investors. He is also aware that Russia has nothing to gain and much to lose from further instability on its borders.

When I was invited in to see the Russian President for a bizarre three and a half hour meeting shortly after the terrible terrorist attack on the school in Beslan in September, he made clear he had nothing against Ukraine going its own way economically (that meant the EU). But he made clear he would draw the line at the Nato. It is not clear what exactly he would do to stop it, but it seems in nobody’s interests to increase tension in the region.

Ultimately, Ukraine is bound to change. It might not do so at the pace of other former central and eastern European states like Poland and Hungary, but even if the reformers lose out this week, their time will come. The most important task facing political leaders from East and West over coming days is to ensure that no blood is spilled. They might not agree on Ukraine’s long term future but at least that is one task on which they can all unite.

This article first appeared in the Daily Express and may not be reproduced without permission.