John Kampfner :: author, broadcaster & commentator

Why the world must be on alert in 2005
Daily Express, 30th December 2004

What a way for our planet to see in the New Year. The aftereffects of the tsunami in the Indian Ocean have left a trail of destruction of biblical proportions across a huge section of the globe. Tens of thousands are dead and around five million people have been left homeless. For these areas, life will never be the same again.

But for other parts of the world, too, this past year has been a time of tumult. And there is little prospect that 2005 will be any different. Cast your eye around the world and the potential for trouble is ever present. So much of the horror has taken place in, and revolved around, Iraq. Only the most dogmatic of people can continue to say that the war there has been anything but a disaster. During 2004, the full consequences of the tragic mistakes of George Bush and Tony Blair have been played out, with the daily bombings and killings, the horrific death tally among the military and the even more horrific and uncounted tally of the civilian dead.

But the damage goes further than that. The word of America and the authority of international law are now widely dismissed across the Middle East and beyond. It will be harder, much harder, for the UN or for anyone else to call dictators to account.Saddam awaits trial, and it will be good when that happens. But the link between Iraq and terror that barely existed under his rule is now firmly established.

Much will depend on the elections due in Iraq on January 30. Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is determined that they will take place, come what may, but expect the violence to intensify in the coming weeks in an attempt to stop them. And even if he wins, can a man put in position by the Americans really gain the confidence of a big enough cross-section of a divided people?

The country that has profited most from the mayhem in Iraq is its neighbour Iran. The clerics that run that country have a newfound confidence. Iran has been forced to suspend its alleged nuclear weapons programme, thanks in no small part to a joint initiative from Britain, France and Germany - by the way, Mr Blair, diplomacy does work - but there is no guarantee that the deal will hold. If it does not, the hardliners - who are ever more in the ascendancy in the Bush administration - are desperate to have a go at Iran. God help us all if they do.

Elsewhere there are other causes for concern.

Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich fundamentalist state that we lavished with friendship in return for arms contracts, is less stable now than it has ever been. The royal family there is teetering and if it goes the violence will only increase.

The most immediate trouble spot is likely to be Syria. It took last minute intervention by Blair and by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, to stop the Americans bombing the place straight after they had "won" in Iraq in April 2003. Now the US is said to be contemplating incursions into Syrian territory in an attempt to capture Iraqi Ba'athists who, it believes, are directing the attacks against US targets in Iraq.

The source of much of the grievance across the Middle East remains the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Just before Christmas, Blair made yet another effort to bridge the divide. The elections for a new Palestinian leader on January 9, following the death of Yasser Arafat, do offer a window of opportunity. The likely winner, Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, is someone with whom the Israelis say they can do business. We will see.

There is one other potential destination in our search for optimism. The elections in Afghanistan in October were a distinct success. Hamed Karzai now has a legitimate mandate. But his writ does not extend much further than the capital, Kabul. Across much of the country, heavily armed warlords and drug traders remain in charge. Still, after the hideous Taliban rule it is progress, of a sort.

Closer to home, Russia is posing a threat we had hoped had disappeared with the collapse of communism more than a decade ago. As Vladimir Putin sees the outlying republics that used to form the USSR going their own way, he has become increasingly aggressive. The flashpoint of the past few months has been the Ukraine. The hope is that now the democratic opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, has clearly won the re-run elections after all the fraud and intimidation, he will be allowed to get on with it.

Terrorism apart, the two biggest long-term threats to American and European interests are the hardest to fathom.

China will, in a matter of a decade or so, become an economic superpower to rival the US. The potential for a country of more than a billion people, with a combination of a growing high skills sector and a massive source of low-cost labour, is enormous. As it exerts its financial power, so China will become a bigger player politically. Tensions over Taiwan and Tibet, tensions with Japan and elsewhere will grow.

Finally there is the environment. The Government's chief scientific officer was slapped down for saying earlier this year that global warming posed a bigger threat than terrorism. We have seen the potential for disaster in 2004, some manmade, some natural. The awful earthquake and tidal waves that have hit Asia testify to that. Ultimately there is only so much governments and individuals can do.

We can expect the unexpected, but we also have to accept that while the trouble spots might change, trouble around the world does not.

This article first appeared in the Daily Express and may not be reproduced without permission.