Balance of forces has shifted away from Blair
The Herald, 28th January 2004

Tony Blair has escaped. He has hung on. But this was desperate stuff.

This was a pyrrhic victory. Last night's events at Westminster were a devastating blow to the prime minister's authority. The fact that the prime minister with a majority of 161 had to rely on his chancellor to bail him out – to squeeze out the last remaining votes – shows how desperately weakened he is. All sides are wondering: how much more can they take?

For some Labour rebels it was about the substance of the Higher Education Bill. For others the problem is not so much the policy as its proponent. Their patience has been tested, their good will has been appealed to once too often.

Most of the anger stems from the war with Iraq. Blair had desperately hoped for a greater show of support to help him cope with Lord Hutton's report today. The Conservatives, for all their opportunism, will feel emboldened.

So will the many Labour MPs who feel they were duped about the war. Lord Hutton's findings will inflict further damage. But they are also likely to be messy. Criticism will be applied liberally across government and across the BBC. Blair, with some artful spinning, will emerge battered and bruised but still there.

The judge was not, however, asked to pass judgment on the issue that really exercises people. Were we taken to war on the basis of a false threat? Were we lied to? The admission last weekend by David Kay, the American head of the Iraq Survey Group, that Iraq had probably not had any weapons of mass destruction for years destroyed Mr Blair's case. The PM can argue as much as he likes about ridding the world of an evil dictator, but that was not the reason he cited for going to war.

Many Labour MPs and activists believe that, until Mr Blair comes clean and gives a detailed account of what happened and what went wrong, trust in him will not be restored. That will be very difficult for him to do because he agreed to go to war a year before hostilities began – at George W Bush's Texas ranch in April 2002.

He knew he could not persuade his party to back him over "regime change", so he had to find a reason. Even though Mr Blair failed to convince the UN, on the eve of war his party gave him the benefit of the doubt when his leadership was on the line.

How many of his MPs now rue that moment? It was not just Jack Straw who had his last-minute doubts. Many other senior ministers were also privately unhappy. How many of them regret not challenging the PM more vigorously in cabinet?

Many around Mr Blair hoped that, after the mistakes that led to war, he had learnt the lessons.

We were told that cabinet government was back. Parliament and the party would be listened to. And then what happened? Without any consultation, MPs were ordered to back a change to university funding that was the exact opposite of what they had pledged to do in their 2001 general election manifesto.

No leader before has so consistently and unremittingly defined himself against his own party. The top-up fees saga is the point of no return.

The blunt truth for Mr Blair is that he is quite simply not strong enough any more to steamroller legislation past his parliamentary party. He has used up his remaining credit. The balance of forces has shifted. He needs his MPs now at least as much as they need him.

And if he is to continue as leader up to the next election, probably in the summer of 2005, what does Mr Blair have left? In his domestic reforms, he will have to tread carefully. In foreign affairs, he will have to rebuild bridges and rein in his militaristic urges. He will have to make up with his party.

By the end of this week, if Lord Hutton's criticisms are contained, Mr Blair may tell himself that the worst is over. He will proclaim the next phase of "radical reform", but in truth he is for the first time utterly beholden to his party, and his senior ministers. The man who was once master of all he surveyed is now at the mercy of forces beyond his control.


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