John Kampfner dissects the European Commission
Monday 23rd August 2004

With a new European Commission president who is keen to show he is no one's poodle, can Tony Blair still secure an advantageous deal for Britain in Brussels? By John Kampfner.

Old Europe is dead. Long live . . . what exactly? The response from Tony Blair to the composition of the new European Commission was jubilant. The Prime Minister, having swatted away the Labour Party's concerns about Peter Mandelson's fitness for high office, saw his favourite son appointed to one of the top jobs in Brussels: trade. But the distribution of the other portfolios was even more striking, notably the preferential treatment given to the likes of the Irish, Dutch and Poles, and the rebuff to President Chirac in handing his man the inconsequential brief of transport.

Downing Street has invested heavily in the man responsible for these changes, the new European Commission president, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso. He represents much of what Blair would like Europe to be. A former Maoist, his political journey ended with the Social Democrats on the centre right (pace new Labour). As prime minister of Portugal, Barroso made himself unpopular by pushing through an austerity programme to conform to the eurozone's Stability and Growth Pact - strictures his French and German counterparts sought to flout.

He is as staunch an Atlanticist as he is a free-marketeer and hosted the eve-of-war Azores summit in March 2003 for Blair, President Bush and the then Spanish premier, Jose Maria Aznar.

Those are the bald facts, but European Commission presidents have a habit of not conforming to the expectations of UK governments. Jacques Delors became the scourge of Eurosceptics for being too strong and leading the EU in its most ambitious integrationist phase in the early 1990s. Jacques Santer, seen as a better bet than the more federalist Belgian choice, was vilified for being too weak and presiding over corruption scandals that led to the European Commission's mass resignation in 1999. Romano Prodi was hailed in London as a vigorous successor - but he also did not turn out that way.

Barroso and his new 25-strong team formally take over in November, when the European Commission moves back into its grand Berlaymont headquarters after 13 years of asbestos clearing. The honeymoon may not last long. Having shown Chirac the independence he is capable of, Barroso may deliver a similar message to Blair. There are several potential opportunities for discord. When the new EU budget is negotiated in the coming months, Barroso will be under pressure from other countries to support proposals to scrap the UK's anachronistic 20-year-old budget rebate, worth £2bn annually. Blair has vowed to veto any such attempt.

Blair is hoping that Barroso will revive plans to make Europe's economies more competitive and knowledge-based. Under pressure from the French and Germans, Prodi allowed these ideas to drop. However, Barroso is regarded as far more of an adherent of a "social Europe" than the British want.

In short, Blair wants the commission to assert authority, but only in ways he deems appropriate - fine on issues of the market, competition and trade, but keep away from the strategic development of the EU and from foreign policy. Having survived his many Iraq ordeals and seen the commission moulded more in his image, Blair will use the UK presidency, which begins next January, to throw his weight around more than before. However, his counterparts are well aware of his domestic tribulations on the constitution and the euro - and will exploit his weaknesses if pushed too far.

For Chirac and Gerhard Schroder, developments over the summer have been bleak. Germany's chancellor, his poll ratings and regional election results at an all-time low, has had to face a wave of protests against welfare cuts deemed vital to kick-start the economy. Both still have a few years to run, but are increasingly overshadowed by a new generation of rivals. In France, if the commentators are to be believed, Nicolas Sarkozy, the finance minister, might as well have already won the next presidential election even though it is not due until 2007. In Berlin, Schroder's fortunes are contrasted with those of Angela Merkel, one of the first generation of post-communist East German politicians, who now heads the opposition Christian Democrats. Aznar is gone in Spain, while in Italy Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition will face renewed pressure.

With commissioners from countries such as Lithuania and Estonia getting more significant briefs than the Frenchman, the enlarged EU is entering a new phase. Bush's announcement of troop reductions across Europe is a reminder that Nato is also struggling to come to terms with changed circumstances.

The Franco-German axis that has driven European integration for 50 years may be dissolving. But it is far from clear how the new batch of political leaders will replace it and whether the electorates, which opted for protest groups or stayed at home in record numbers during the June elections, will embrace it at all.


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